Don’t paint with a broad brush in this downturn

bijan:

And now in downturn 2.0 we are hearing many people make grand statements about big markets, like:

1. Online video is dead

Even though YouTube is close to posting profits, millions use Hulu and Vimeo. I’d argue just the opposite: online video is just getting started. Between Hulu working with the Networks and people posting more than ever to YouTube and Vimeo, online video is just taking off.

2. Social networks can’t make money

Sure they can, they just need a better model than “Let’s run ads on the site, maybe somebody will click ‘em.” We’re in the infancy stages of social networking, just like online video.

4. Venture is dead

If Venture is dead, how will new sites and services spring up? The future of the web will have to be supported by venture capital while we address problems 1 and 2, figuring out models that take the video sites and the social networks off of VC as they grow and become able to support themselves.

5. I’m only investing in things with “proven” business models.

If something isn’t proven yet, how do we know it’ll work? More importantly, how do we know that it won’t work? The Internet brings about an entirely different element to advertising revenue and making money because the traditional ways that things have been done haven’t worked. This problem is especially prevalent in the world of online newspapers as they struggled to establish a way to keep their staff and their businesses afloat.

The radical companies, the ones who aren’t afraid to take risks, will change something in this crazy grab for money that exists somewhere and then the period of refinement comes where companies will begin to play with and tweak the radical approach.

6. Free doesn’t work.

It absolutely works, there just needs to be a way to provide Free while somehow generating money. It’s the billion dollar question.

7. There isn’t a business model with online music.

This is the one point of yours that really intrigues me. Music, like Journalism, is in such a state of flux that it’s time to abandon the old business model and move on. iTunes seems to be doing a great job handling online music, the artists though, whatever the model turns out to be, still need to eat. People will pay more for concert tickets now than they ever have before; people are eager to see live music.

Just because piracy exists doesn’t mean that people will stop buying music. Kids, teens and the cheap will take advantage of the free music market that exists while others will always pay for music. The market for music is now smaller with piracy but that doesn’t mean that the concert experience is.

Piracy allows for potential fans to get your music at no charge to them and then if they like you they can buy a ticket to come see your show. Live music is the future of the music industry, even as the record companies continue to whine about dwindling CD sales.

Look, here’s the thing. There are plenty of bad ideas out there and mistakes are being made. At the same time there are people inventing stuff and executing like crazy. There are people innovating in almost every category and inventing new ones along the way.

Well said Bijan.

Source: bijan